A WORKING ENGINE — NOT A WALL CHART
Intelligence is a Living Engine.
We don't just map power; we predict its trajectory. No "expert" opinions — just falsifiable data, visible recalibration, and a score that never lies.
4,722
Verified Entities
15,168
Structural Links
23
Live Predictions
Real-time Engine Recalibration
Active
The loop
CASE STUDY · ONE FULL CYCLE · 6 DAYS
China and the Iran-US war
From structural reasoning to scored outcome to recalibrated forecast.
APRIL 30, 2026 · PREDICTION LOGGED
"China publicly proposes mediation role on Iran-US within 60 days."
WHY WE SAID 65%
- ▸ China gets a fifth of its imported oil through Hormuz
- ▸ Pivot-player strategy: brokering as cheaper than picking sides
- ▸ 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement: precedent for Chinese mediation
WHAT WOULD PROVE US WRONG
- × China remains explicitly silent through end of June
- × China publicly endorses one side's terms
- × China supports military escalation publicly
MAY 6, 2026 · CONFIRMED · 6 DAYS LATER
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi publicly called for a comprehensive Iran-US ceasefire during Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Beijing.
PREDICTED PROBABILITY
65%
BRIER SCORE
0.122
chance = 0.250
DAYS TO RESOLVE
6
window was 60
On Brier scoring: a Brier score measures how far a probabilistic forecast was from what actually happened — lower is better, perfect is 0, always-guessing-50% is 0.250, and worst-possible is 1.0. A 65% prediction that resolves true scores (1−0.65)² = 0.122.
MAY 9, 2026 · RECALIBRATION · ENGINE UPDATES OPEN PREDICTIONS
The structural reasoning that worked once gets applied to what's still open. Three follow-on Iran predictions now sit in the market — each one explicitly tested against the criteria that would falsify it.
If this loop is honest, the predictions above are the next round of falsifiable claims. They will resolve — at known dates, against known criteria — and the engine will be scored. If we're wrong, the counterfactual analysis tells us by how much to adjust similar future predictions. See the full prediction tracker →
Track record so far
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Total predictions logged
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Resolved (scored)
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Open (in market)
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Avg Brier (lower is better)
Sample size is small (3 resolved). Brier of 0.068 is meaningfully better than chance (0.250), but ten resolutions in is when the calibration starts to matter. Watch this number as the open predictions resolve.
Now you've seen the loop. Here's what feeds it.
THE MAP
Network
4,722 documented entities and 15,168 connections across 19 operational layers. Searchable, filterable, sourced.
Explore the network →
THE STRUCTURE
Patterns
Eight recurring operational signatures we detect across the corpus. Each one defines what would falsify it.
See the patterns →
THE LIVE FEED
Monitor
News from nine sources is scored against open prediction criteria daily. Never auto-resolves — surfaces evidence for review.
Watch live signals →
Network
Stratified 3D view of the 23 highest-centrality named entities across 19 operational layers, with real edges drawn from the documented 15,168-edge corpus. Click any entity to focus the view and reveal its dossier. The full 4,722-entity corpus is surfaced in the tables below.
4,722
Entities
15,168
Edges
19
Layers
323
Communities
LOADING NETWORK DATA
click any cluster to drill into that layer · drag to pan · scroll to zoom
Top Centrality Nodes PageRank — full graph
Entities most influential in the network's topology. PageRank approximates each node's structural importance based on incoming connections from other influential nodes.
| Entity | Layer | Edges | PageRank |
|---|
Layer Distribution
Entity count and pattern density per operational layer.
| Layer | Ents | Patterns |
|---|
Cross-Layer Bridges
Entities spanning the most operational layers — structural connectors.
| Entity | Edges | Layers |
|---|
Index
Searchable directory of all 4,722 documented entities. Each entry includes layer membership, edge count, scrub count (Epstein-files redaction frequency), notable connections, and full source citations.
Filters
Entities —
| Name | Layer | Edges | Scrubs |
|---|
Structural Patterns
Detected behavioral signatures that recur across the corpus. Each pattern is defined operationally with falsification criteria. The detector finds instances by name and tag matching — read as "structural footprint", not verdict on individual actors.
8
Patterns
—
Instances
8
Strong correlations
Detected Patterns
Inter-Pattern Correlations
Pearson r between annual instance counts (1980-2026). Strong correlations suggest patterns are operationally related.
Per-Actor Pattern Signatures
Individual entities ranked by cross-pattern density. Output is structural footprint, NOT verdict on the person's role.
| Entity | Layer | Patterns |
|---|
Layer-Specific Pattern Density
Which patterns are active in each operational layer? L17 (Ideological Architecture) has the highest pattern density at 6 patterns active.
| Layer | Entities | Events | Active Patterns |
|---|
Open Questions: Facilitator Succession
Bayesian analysis of four operational questions about the trafficking network's documented end-state and possible continuation.
Predictions live tracking
Falsifiable predictions about geopolitical events, derived from structural patterns in the entity-relationship corpus. Each carries explicit confirmation and falsification criteria. FALSIFICATION-DISCIPLINED — predictions cannot be logged without testable criteria.
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Total
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Open
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Resolved
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Avg Brier
Markov Chain — Conflict Trajectory 90% CI under ±20% transition perturbation
Simulating 200 perturbations of the current conflict trajectories. Each bar shows the probability that the conflict ends in that state, with the 90% confidence interval shaded after the fill.
Open Predictions —
Resolved & Track Record
Counterfactual Leverage
If a resolved prediction had gone the other way, how would the engine's track record shift?
Monitor
Real-time signals: news feed scoring against open prediction criteria, ICIJ Offshore Leaks reconciliation against documented entities, GDELT geopolitical event ingestion. NEVER AUTO-RESOLVES — surfaces evidence for human review only.
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Items scanned
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Predictions flagged
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ICIJ strong matches
9
News sources
News Auto-Scorer Hacker News · BBC · NPR · ProPublica · ICIJ · Intercept · Reveal · ArsTechnica · Wikipedia
Two-stage matching: topic relevance gate (entity/actor mentions) + criterion-keyword scoring (specificity-weighted). Surfaces evidence for human review at threshold 0.30.
ICIJ Offshore Leaks Enrichment Pandora · Panama · Paradise · Bahamas · Offshore Leaks 2013
Reconciles intermediary-layer entities against ICIJ's leaked corporate registry data. Strong match (score ≥ 50) warrants further investigation; common surnames generate false positives.
About
The Hidden Lattice maps documented connections across financial networks, political influence, and institutional power structures. The site combines a curated entity-relationship corpus with structural pattern detection and falsifiable prediction tracking.
Methodology
Sourcing. Every node and edge in the corpus is sourced from at least one of: court filings, congressional records, investigative journalism (named outlet, named reporter where available), corporate registrations, financial disclosures, declassified documents, or peer-reviewed research. Inferences are tagged separately from documented connections.
Layers. The 19 operational layers are not categorical — most prominent entities span 8-18 layers. Layer assignment reflects an entity's documented operational center of gravity, not its sole domain.
Patterns. Eight structural patterns are detected by name + tag matching across all 20,008 derived events. Pattern instances do NOT establish causation or guilt — they identify recurring operational signatures whose density and correlation can be measured. False positives are expected; the falsification criteria for each pattern are made explicit.
Predictions. Each prediction logs explicit confirmation criteria, explicit falsification criteria, an evidence basis, and a probability. The engine cannot log a prediction without falsification criteria — this is enforced architecturally. Predictions are scored by Brier score on resolution; the auto-scorer never resolves a prediction without human confirmation.
Epistemic Discipline
What this is
- A structured corpus of documented relationships
- A pattern detector that identifies recurring operational signatures
- A prediction tracker with falsification discipline and Brier scoring
- A live monitoring layer that flags evidence for human review
What this is NOT
- A claim that any individual entity is guilty of any specific act
- An autonomous accusation generator (every flag requires human review)
- A complete map (corpus is curated, not exhaustive)
- A substitute for legal proceedings or journalistic investigation
Sources
Primary source categories represented in the corpus, in approximate order of weight in evidence basis:
Court & Legal
- SDNY filings
- USVI v. JPMorgan
- Mueller Report
- SSCI Vol 5 (Russia)
- DOJ IG reports
- FinCEN filings
Investigative Journalism
- ProPublica
- ICIJ (Pandora/Panama/Paradise)
- Miami Herald (Julie K. Brown)
- The Intercept
- Reveal News
- Reuters / BBC
Public Records
- SEC filings
- Congressional testimony
- Corporate registrations
- FARA filings
- OFAC sanctions lists
- OpenSecrets / FEC
Updates
The corpus and predictions update on a daily refresh cycle. Pattern detection and Markov sensitivity recompute on every refresh. The auto-scorer ingests news feeds at each refresh and surfaces flags for review. ICIJ reconciliation runs nightly.
Refresh runtime: ~80 seconds (full pipeline)
News feeds: 9 sources
Markov perturbation samples: 200
Last refresh: —
News feeds: 9 sources
Markov perturbation samples: 200
Last refresh: —